Following the same disaster pattern?

By Duru

October 3, 2001


I just heard that with today's big rally stocks have recovered to Sept 17 levels. This seems to fit right into the pattern I postulated would happen after the terrorist attacks....rapid selling, followed by cooler heads sending stocks back up to previous, pre-disaster levels. The last leg is the resumption of the previous pattern. In our case, that was steady selling sending us slowly but surely downward. October will make or break this pattern.

Message? Don't fall for what is probably yet another bear rally. However, with all this stimulus in the pipelines, we may be seeing a true bottom forming in the coming months followed by a trading range that could finally clearly signal to us that we have entered a secular bear market. Or certainly lower our expectations for stock market returns in the coming years.

Just my thinking right now....!

I will be writing more when I get some more time and after we get into this next earnings period: it won't be pretty!

Be careful out there!