Fed Doesn't Know When Economy to Rebound

By Duru

October 16, 2001


Too little too late....

As you know I have been very critical of the Fed's sometimes Pollyanna outlook on America's economic prospects. In this article, certain members admit once and for all they have no idea when we will rebound. They are subtly hiding behind the Sept 11 disaster as an excuse for their poor forecasting of the economy when in reality the economy was bad and getting worse even before then. Finally, note that they still use this language of "we are build the foundations for an economic rebound. The economy will be stronger in the long-term." Comforting words indeed, but who knows just how long is "long-term"? Of course, the economy will be stronger again, but these kind of pronouncements are useless to base any planning on.

Lesson? Ignore most forecasters and prognosticators. They are usually only right in hindsight and at best when it is too late to do anything about their predictions. The Fed is the worst offender of them all because they have the ulterior and additional motive of propping of American confidence in order to provide the fuel for a, hopefully, self-fulfilling prophecy.

I am still collecting my thoughts before writing another missive since so much has happened and I have experience so much in the past 5 weeks, but I thought I would share this with you now as part of my continued effort to get you to prepare for rocky seas ahead.



>Tuesday October 16, 4:58 pm Eastern Time

>Fed Doesn't Know When Economy to Rebound

>By Marjorie Olster