The Bottom Line: Don't believe the rally

By Duru

March 4, 2002

As luck, and I do mean luck, would have it, no sooner than I am ringing the clarion call to got out and buy your favorite stocks and mutual funds, the market kicks into high gear again. My, what a difference a week, even just a few days, can make!

Suddenly, all is well in the world, world economic news seems rosier and rosier, and the bulls are buying up any stocks that aren't sitting still and the bears are running scared covering their shorting tracks. Could this all mark the end of the bear? Hmmm...maybe.

The sad thing is that the market has once again shown itself to be a schizophrenic at best and manic depressant at worst. The fact that people could go running out buying up stocks the way they have been bid up the past few days, once again shows speculative excess is not out of the system. And if you haven't already bought in, you may already be too late.

One example of caution is that the market has swung just as easily from doom and gloom about accounting scandals as it has now to giddy optimism for a robust recovery (again!). Isn't it eerie that people are throwing so much money at this paper while the slaughter intensifies in Israel? That it is clear the war in Afghanistan is far from over, and could get bloodier for the US? And at the same time, the US is itching for a fight in every dark corner of the world it thinks a terrorist may be hanging out? Etc, etc....? Surely the risks that are out there are not priced into these markets.

At some point, I will have more detailed stuff to say, but since I was saying buy, buy, buy last week, I now want to condition that recommendation now that markets are racing ahead faster than I was expecting by sending the following article along. It focuses on the tech madness, but it could apply to any over-valued sector or stock out there.


...and be careful out there.


Don't believe the rally

The economy is on a roll and stocks are racing -- isn't anybody reading the fine print?

By Adam Lashinsky

(Posted on