Google IPO = Market Top?
April 26, 2004
There have been quite a few things to write about, but I have had so little time lately.
I did want to jot down a quick note on the Google IPO since it finally seems to be imminent. I remember thinking that Google was nuts not to have gone IPO earlier in the year (or maybe it was the end of last year?) because I felt the market for their IPO could not get much better. Now, this highly anticipated piece of paper is supposedly going to hit the streets soon - valuing the company upwards of $25 billion. Whew! Could Microsoft be far away? J
Whether or not Google's shares ever see a higher price than the bubblicious prices it is certain to flip on the day of the offering, I strongly suspect that this event should finally mark the top of the market. I would not be surprised to see the entire tech sector ramp in giddy expectation into the Google IPO only to begin grinding lower from there as the remaining bullish enthusiasm for the bear rally is finally spent. And if the IPO is timed for May, you could not write a better script for a top in the market.
Just some thoughts and words of caution. Until the market starts acting well on good news, like blockbuster earnings reports or good economic news, it will remain vulnerable. Maybe we need to get some interest rates out of the way. Maybe we need to get the US Presidential elections out of the way (by the way, I will eventually make a case for why I want to predict that Kerry will win in a landslide). Who knows at this point. But what is certain is that the market is confused, lurching forward and backward with the jitters of a mental patient. The case for a resolution to the upside gets weaker and weaker while the case for a resolution in the form of a confirmed top seems more and more alluring.
Stay tuned. I hope to be back "to normal" in a week or soon thereafter.