ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
The Market Breadth Summary: Punished The Stock Market Summary The Federal Reserve actually did it. America’s central bank channeled Kevin Warsh’s previous jawboning into an actual rate hike. The Fed’s first such move since 2023 was well-priced by the Fed fund futures market, but the stock market was initially caught off-guard. The rate hike punished … Read more
The Market Breadth Summary: Broke Sharply The Stock Market Summary The S&P 500 rose fractionally for the week and hid some large market catalysts under the surface. Market breadth broke sharply from the S&P 500 with a large loss and return to the bottom of a trading range. A bearish breakdown in small caps provided … Read more
The Market Breadth Summary: AI Crash The Stock Market Summary First, technology cracked and next the AI trade crashed. The crash is not obvious because the stock market absorbed the crash quickly and, perhaps most importantly, many AI trades are still up significantly for the year despite trading down 30%, 40%, 50% and more from … Read more
The Market Breadth Summary This is the week I finally had to turn bearish on the stock market. The warning signs have piled up too high for me to continue ignoring them. The momentum in the S&P 500 and NASDAQ has been incredibly strong, and that momentum kept me from making this call earlier. However, … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The stock market started the week in familiar melt-up mode, supported by a (temporary) thaw in the economic war between the U.S. and China. Optimism persisted until the Federal Reserve weighed in with its latest announcement on monetary policy, when Chair Jerome Powell balked at the idea of a December rate cut. … Read more