The NASDAQ Chugs Along Again

By Dr. Duru written for One-Twenty

November 3, 2006

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This is my third update this year on the longer-term view on the NASDAQ. In January, I noted the nice upward trending channel that was taking the NASDAQ steadily higher. Just three months ago, I sounded the alarm that this very same channel was finally failing, but I also wondered whether the change in character was really just a new channel taking shape. Sure enough, that break in the previous channel turned out to be a fake-out for the bears, and we now have the imprint of a new upward trending channel. Note how the NASDAQ's current rally has stalled out a bit just as it reaches for the highs of the year. If this channel is worth its pixels, it seems that the index is "destined" to make those new highs soon. But after that, we may be in for an extended correction that takes us back to, yep, you guessed it, those old post 9/11 highs. (See the chart below - the red lines signify the former and current channels along with the support/resistance line formed by the post 9/11 rally highs).

This is of course all technical charting talk, and I am not yet ready to posit what catalysts might motivate the NASDAQ to behave according to this new trading channel. But this is definitely something to keep your eye on going forward. Be careful out there!

DrDuru, 2006